IANS World Exclusive: Iran ‘lucky’ to have suffered no pain, no damage over last one year, says former US NSA

New Delhi, Oct 9 (IANS) John Bolton, the US National Security Adviser (NSA) to former President Donald Trump from 2018-2019 and a former US Ambassador to the United Nations, has said that the future of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East depends on the intensity of Israel’s impending retaliation following Iran’s recent missile strikes.

In an exclusive chat with the IANS on Wednesday, the noted political commentator reflected on the tense situation in the region since the horrific attacks carried out by Hamas in Israel on October 7, 2023 that took more than 1200 innocent lives, insisting that Iran has been “very lucky” for having paid “no price” for the events that have unfolded till now.

“It really has been a full-fledged war since October 7, last year. I think it’s been fought on a number of fronts and is not just a Palestinian or Gazan war against Israel or even Hezbollah war against Israel. It is an Iranian war against Israel on several fronts. The activity on the different fronts is varied from time to time,” said Bolton.

As Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) and security agencies, including Shin Bet and Mossad, remain focused on “completing the job” and freeing the remaining hostages from Gaza, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Monday – the first anniversary of October 7 attacks – that a counter attack on Israel’s enemies in “Iran’s axis of evil” is a necessary condition for securing the country’s future and ensuring its security.

“Right now, it’s very active in Lebanon as Israel attacks Hezbollah missile stockpiles and the like. But we could be coming up on a very critical decision as the Netanyahu government decides what steps to take to retaliate for the October 1 missile attack, the second such attack from Iran directly on Israel… It is a very significant decision and they are in the process of making it now. What they do and then how Iran and its allies respond to that, could well signal whether this gets more intense or a different result is obtained,” Bolton told IANS.

Vowing strong response, Israel has already significantly escalated its military operations on several fronts, eliminating several Hezbollah commanders, including its chief Hassan Nasrallah in Lebanon, over the past one month.

In August, Hamas politburo chief Ismail Haniyeh, who attended the swearing-in ceremony of Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, was also killed along with his bodyguard in Tehran as the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) accused Israel of carrying out the “terrorist attack”.

“I think the Israelis have unbelievable capabilities as the attack on the Hezbollah pager and walkie talkie network indicated. Over the past year, Israel has come close to dismembering Hamas and it’s working away on Hezbollah as we speak. So these two pillars of Iranian strength in the Middle East have been severely damaged, perhaps permanently in the case of Hamas,” the former NSA mentioned.

He warned that Israel could be planning a very “strong strike” against Iran in the coming days.

“Iran has been very lucky for one year. They have suffered almost no damage, paid almost no price, suffered almost no pain for a year’s worth of war in the region. That’s about to end, I think. I don’t know what Israel will do exactly. But, what’s coming will be a very strong strike against Iran. And we’ll have to see whether the Iranians respond in kind or whether it turns out they’re the paper tigers,” said Bolton.

Having worked closely with the former US President Donald Trump, the seasoned US security official admitted that he could have approached the entire situation differently than the current US President, Joe Biden.

“It’s possible. I mean, Trump has said within the past few days that he would support Israel going after Iran’s nuclear weapons programme. But on the other hand, I can tell you he doesn’t like Bibi Netanyahu at all, personally. And Trump doesn’t operate from the basis of a clear national security philosophy. He doesn’t do policy in the same sense most people understand that term. His decisions are ad hoc, idiosyncratic, transactional and really seen through the prism… We could make some guesses about what Trump would do differently. But it’s a very, very hazardous game,” reckoned Bolton.

Last month, the US State Department announced a reward of up to $20 million for information leading to the arrest or conviction of Shahram Poursafi, a Specially Designated Global Terrorist and, according to the US authorities, a uniformed member of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), for attempting to arrange the transnational murder-for-hire of Bolton, likely in retaliation for the January 2020 death of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps – Qods Force (IRGC-QF) Commander Qasem Soleimani.

“The Iranian Revolutionary Guard official has been trying to hire a hitman to kill me for the last several years. All I can say is that I am protected by the Secret Service and feel very safe. And, you know, the Iranians don’t win any friends in the United States by trying to kill current and former US government officials from President Trump or down. So maybe they’ll learn their lesson,” remarked Bolton during his interview with the IANS.

–IANS

as/