Washington, Oct 27 (IANS) US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has warned that Venezuela could descend into civil war or return to decades of political repression if the ongoing US-backed democratic transition fails, insisting that Washington will not allow the country’s interim leadership to indefinitely delay elections.
In a detailed assessment of Venezuela’s political future on Monday, Rubio said the United States had established firm timelines for replacing key electoral and judicial institutions, and was using sanctions relief and economic incentives to ensure compliance.
He said Washington wanted a peaceful transition that would allow millions of Venezuelans who fled the country to return home.
“If this process doesn’t work, then the alternative is going to be worse,” Rubio told reporters during a teleconference.
“The alternative is going to be either violence and armed conflict within the country, or back to the way things have been for the last 20 years, which have not been good for the people of Venezuela,” he said.
Rubio’s warning came as the Trump administration sought to consolidate political and economic changes following the January 3 operation that led to the arrest of Nicolás Maduro.
The Secretary of State made clear that Washington’s support for Venezuela’s interim authorities was conditional on progress towards a democratic system.
He said the United States had agreed on timelines with the interim administration and that those commitments were being honoured despite disruptions caused by an earthquake.
“We have timelines that are agreed to, and so far, they’ve met every one of the timelines,” Rubio said.
He did not announce a date for elections but insisted that reforms must be completed quickly.
The changes include replacing the country’s Supreme Court, known as the TSJ, and the National Electoral Council, or CNE.
Rubio argued that elections conducted under institutions inherited from the Maduro administration could not guarantee a legitimate democratic outcome.
“How can you have a legitimate election in Venezuela when the Electoral Council is controlled by people loyal to one side, with the power to decide that certain so-and-so can’t run for election, so they can’t be on the ballot?” he asked.
He also questioned the credibility of a judicial system that could validate decisions favouring the incumbent authorities.
The reforms, he said, could not be postponed for years.
US sanctions remain key leverage
Rubio said Washington retained considerable influence over Venezuela because the country remained subject to extensive American sanctions.
Certain economic activities, including oil-related transactions, were being permitted through waivers and general licences issued by the US Treasury.
These concessions, he indicated, could be reconsidered if the interim government failed to honour its commitments.
“The United States has significant influence over the direction that these talks go and the results that we get from them,” he said.
Rubio rejected suggestions that Venezuela’s current leadership could prolong negotiations until the Trump administration ran out of time.
“No one’s going to wait us out here,” he said.
He expressed confidence that the transition could be completed during his remaining time in office.
The Secretary of State also rejected suggestions that Washington had offered immunity from prosecution to members of the interim leadership in exchange for cooperation.
“No, there’s definitely no talk about prosecutions or anything of this nature,” he said.
Rubio described the political transition as the only viable peaceful route towards a functioning democratic republic.
He said the objective was not merely to organise one election but to establish institutions capable of supporting successive elected governments.
Washington judges Rodríguez by actions
Asked about Delcy Rodríguez’s public criticism of the American operation against Maduro, Rubio said Washington was assessing the interim government’s conduct.
“We ultimately judge it not by rhetoric but by action,” he said.
Rubio claimed that the interim authorities had complied with American requests involving national security, criminal organisations and political reforms.
He said Iranian and Cuban influence in Venezuela had been substantially reduced.
He also cited the extradition of Alex Saab, saying Saab had pleaded guilty and was cooperating with the American justice system.
Rubio said the interim authorities had also agreed to changes involving the Supreme Court and electoral institutions.
“If at the end of the day we have a new TSJ, a new CNE, a new election, and a new system of government, that’s what we want,” he said.
Machado’s return and US assurances
Rubio also addressed the return of opposition leader María Corina Machado to Venezuela.
He said Washington had communicated with interim authorities several weeks earlier to ensure she could return without interference.
“Our expectation is that she’s a Venezuelan, she belongs in her country,” Rubio said, describing the message delivered to the interim government.
According to Rubio, the authorities indicated that Machado could fly into the country, and the assurance was communicated to her team.
He said his understanding was that she had entered Venezuela the previous day without encountering problems upon arrival.
Rubio said that Machado had criticised aspects of Washington’s oil arrangements but maintained that disagreements over commercial agreements should not obstruct the broader democratic transition.
A transition with regional consequences
Venezuela has experienced years of political confrontation, economic instability and large-scale migration. The crisis has affected neighbouring South American countries as well as the United States, where Venezuelan migration has become a significant immigration and foreign policy issue.
Rubio said between six million and seven million Venezuelans had been forced to leave their country and argued that a stable political system and economic recovery could encourage their return. He contrasted the current approach with earlier negotiations under the Biden administration, which he criticised for making concessions before institutional reforms were secured.
For Washington, Rubio said, the central objective remained a peaceful political settlement that would prevent renewed violence and establish a functioning democracy.
He maintained that the current process offered Venezuela its closest opportunity yet to achieve that outcome without another prolonged cycle of sanctions, confrontation and instability.
–IANS
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