Northeast records over 40 pc deficiency in June rainfall due to weakened monsoon, July likely to be below normal too: IMD
Agartala/Guwahati, July 1 (IANS) Even as parts of Assam and Arunachal Pradesh were battered by heavy rains and floods, seven of the eight Northeastern states, barring Sikkim, recorded a massive deficiency in monsoon rainfall during June due to weak rain-bearing systems over the Bay of Bengal, the absence of active monsoon troughs, and the influence of El Nino, India Meteorological Department (IMD) officials said on Wednesday.
According to IMD data, the Northeastern region, comprising eight states, recorded an overall rainfall deficiency of more than 40 per cent during June, the first month of the four-month Southwest monsoon season (June to September).
Among the eight states, only Sikkim registered slightly excess rainfall during June, receiving 515.9 mm against its normal rainfall of 438.2 mm.
An IMD official said that the monthly average rainfall over the country as a whole during July 2026 is most likely to remain below normal — less than 94 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA).
The LPA of rainfall over the country during July, based on data for the period 1971-2020, is around 280.4 mm. Regionally, below-normal rainfall is likely over most parts of the country, except some areas of Northwest and Northeast India, east-central India, and the eastern peninsular region, where normal to above-normal rainfall is expected.
According to agricultural scientists and IMD officials, normal rainfall during July is crucial for the ongoing Kharif cropping season, as sowing activities across most parts of the country, including the mountainous Northeastern region, gather momentum during the month.
IMD data showed that Meghalaya and Manipur recorded “Large Deficient (LD)” rainfall during June, with deficiencies of 74 per cent and 71 per cent, respectively.
A senior official of the Manipur Agriculture Department said that the unprecedented 71 per cent deficiency in monsoon rainfall during June, coupled with the prolonged ethnic conflict, has severely affected agriculture in the state, where irrigation facilities remain inadequate.
“However, the state government has taken adequate security arrangements and other supportive measures to facilitate farming activities in both the Imphal Valley and the hill districts during the Kharif cropping season,” the official told IANS.
The five other Northeastern states — Nagaland (56 per cent deficient), Arunachal Pradesh (44 per cent), Assam (37 per cent), Mizoram (37 per cent), and Tripura (36 per cent) — recorded an average rainfall deficiency of around 42 per cent during June.
As per IMD norms, rainfall ranging from 19 per cent deficient to 19 per cent excess is categorised as normal.
IMD’s Agartala Meteorological Centre Director Partha Roy said that the combined impact of El Niño and other meteorological factors led to deficient rainfall across the country, including the Northeastern region, during June.
“Because of the El Nino conditions, the Southwest monsoon has remained weak so far, resulting in deficient rainfall. This climate phenomenon is likely to intensify further in the coming months,” Roy told IANS.
He said that Tripura received 250.3 mm of rainfall during June, which was 41 per cent below the normal rainfall for the month. According to the IMD official, rainfall during July is expected to remain below normal to near normal over Tripura, while both maximum and minimum temperatures are likely to remain above normal across the state.
The Southwest monsoon advanced into substantial parts of the Northeastern region on June 7, two days later than its normal onset date.
Officials of the IMD’s Meteorological Centres in Guwahati and Agartala said that the Southwest monsoon covered the entire Northeastern region by June 10.
A weather expert noted that one of the strongest El Nino events on record is expected to develop during the second half of 2026, potentially triggering hotter and drier conditions across large parts of Asia while causing excessive rainfall over parts of the Americas. The impact of the phenomenon is likely to be further amplified by ongoing global climate change.
He said that although the IMD had earlier revised its forecast for the four-month Southwest monsoon season (June to September), which contributes nearly 70 per cent of India’s annual rainfall, concerns over El Nino continue to persist. However, despite the prevailing El Nino conditions, meteorologists remain optimistic that the Northeastern region would receive adequate rainfall during the remaining monsoon months, particularly during the peak phase of the season.
The four-month Southwest monsoon is vital for the agrarian economy of the Northeastern states, where a large section of the population depends on rain-fed agriculture for their livelihood. Adequate rainfall during the remaining monsoon months would not only support Kharif cultivation but also help replenish rivers, reservoirs and groundwater resources, besides improving overall environmental conditions and ensuring water security across the region.
(Sujit Chakraborty can be contacted at sujitchakrabortyne@gmail.com)
–IANS
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